Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 40.758826 48.123437 56.199987 65.683023 76.479200 88.353841 102.367775
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 28.378711 37.742566 49.030505 63.503834 81.419128 102.709340 129.750009
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.146836 32.345547 45.571871 63.688339 87.523930 117.450561 157.448189
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.242461 28.863910 43.512864 64.698745 93.976524 132.367120 185.748129
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.783488 23.654934 38.134382 60.220925 92.219910 135.936475 199.005739
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.961638 21.953230 37.363363 61.892891 98.776568 150.794981 227.988800
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.002440 19.649309 35.294531 61.265405 101.749693 160.612590 250.331042
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.323398 19.348367 36.271881 65.306823 111.851437 181.127121 288.886440
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.435315 16.561669 32.776240 61.771957 109.894794 183.604822 301.134399
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.758968 15.903113 32.797467 63.968156 117.055457 200.108856 334.954559
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.477645 15.966965 34.085462 68.395005 128.085281 223.097385 379.641912
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.881597 15.277460 33.888246 70.155422 134.737241 239.482547 414.820351
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.044414 14.024297 32.668531 70.344360 139.418814 254.091010 449.832824
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.092700 12.314196 30.330744 68.261763 140.100594 262.467053 475.857369
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.501838 11.315082 29.278926 68.480982 144.841860 277.803951 513.920760
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.066621 10.599110 28.709736 69.557357 151.180402 296.149653 557.806038
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.329761 8.845963 25.506192 64.796591 146.030335 294.140125 567.229080
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.087587 8.450253 25.402002 66.574706 153.614473 315.022507 616.735512
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.757939 7.682516 24.253715 65.907448 156.252628 327.072738 651.396500
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.690411 7.758306 25.259603 70.203914 169.246209 358.757278 722.015714
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.314434 6.635646 22.913642 66.446114 165.274456 358.619716 735.825880
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.206115 6.459978 23.120904 68.781056 174.298756 383.465327 795.806411
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.179914 6.601407 24.251280 73.485263 188.724411 419.321554 877.293094